The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that in the medium term, Dangote Refinery’s capacity will account for more than half of Africa’s expected distillation additions.
OPEC stated this in its latest World Oil Outlook, released on October 31 and seen by Journalists.
According to OPEC, Arica’s distillation additions are estimated at 1.2 million barrels per day in the medium term. Dangote Refinery, which has a capacity of 650, 000 barrels per day, will account for half of this number.
Dangote Refinery is the largest of all the refinery additions that are expected across Africa in the medium term. Aside from the Dangote Refinery, other expected refining projects in Africa include the 100 tb/d refinery to be built in Soyo, Angola; 110 tb/d Hassi Messaoud refinery expansion in Algeria; 160 tb/d Midor refinery expansion in Egypt; 10 tb/d Brahms modular refinery in Guinea; and 110 tb/d Pointe Noire II refinery in the Republic of Congo.
Ghana and Senegal are also expected to commission new units, most of which are modular.
According to OPEC, these new refinery projects (especially the Dangote Refinery) could address fast-growing demand in Africa, chief among them.
These additions would help not only help to meet demand growth but also reduce product imports in some countries. Continuous competition with product inflows from other markets and problems related to project financing and finalization remain the main challenges for the continent in building the required capacity on time.
According to the OPEC outlook, Nigeria is likely to see the addition of some small modular refineries with capacities of up to 20, 000 b/d over the medium term, thus adding much-needed capacity in the country.
The potential cumulative refining capacity may increase to 1 million barrels per day by 2027, mostly due to announced expansions.
The Warri, Port Harcourt and Kaduna refineries in Nigeria are currently undergoing renovations. In the OPEC outlook, it is stated that Africa has a large number of non-operating refineries, some of which are undergoing refurbishment. If the refurbishments succeed, Africa could expect even higher throughputs and utilization rates in the long term.
These additions could lead to refinery throughputs increase from 1.8 mb/d in 2021 to 4.8 mb/d in 2045, based on strong demand growth and refining capacity additions in both the medium- and long-term.