Billionaire businessman Femi Otedola has projected that the Nigerian naira could strengthen to trade below ₦1,000 to the dollar before the end of the year, following the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of full production capacity.
Otedola made the projection in a statement shared via his official X platform, where he congratulated President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, on reaching the refinery’s full operational output of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd).
Dangote Refinery at 650,000 bpd
According to Otedola, the refinery’s ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily marks a turning point for Nigeria’s energy sector and foreign exchange (FX) stability.
He noted that the commencement of large-scale domestic refining, after decades of heavy dependence on fuel imports, is expected to significantly reduce demand for foreign exchange used in importing refined petroleum products.
“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly. I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below ₦1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach,” Otedola stated.
Impact on Nigeria’s Forex Market
Nigeria has historically relied on imported refined fuel, placing sustained pressure on its FX reserves. The Dangote Refinery’s full-capacity operations are expected to:
- Reduce fuel import bills
- Lower demand for foreign exchange
- Improve trade balance
- Strengthen external reserves
- Support naira stability
Market analysts have consistently argued that domestic refining capacity is a critical structural reform needed to stabilise the naira and reduce exchange rate volatility.
$12 Billion Expansion Plan
Otedola also revealed that Dangote Group has commenced an additional $12 billion expansion project aimed at increasing refining capacity from 650,000 bpd to 1.4 million barrels per day.
The expansion will include:
- Production of 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene
- 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB) for detergent manufacturing
These additions are expected to deepen Nigeria’s petrochemical value chain, reduce imports of industrial raw materials, and enhance export earnings.
Economic Growth and Industrial Transformation
Otedola described the refinery’s milestone as a historic achievement with far-reaching implications for Nigeria’s economic growth, industrialisation, and energy security.
The Dangote Refinery, regarded as Africa’s largest single-train refinery, is positioned to reshape Nigeria’s oil and gas sector by transitioning the country from a major importer of refined products to a net exporter.
As domestic refining gains momentum, stakeholders anticipate improved macroeconomic stability, stronger FX inflows, and a more resilient naira in the months ahead.
