The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has issued its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), forecasting extended rainfall across Lagos and 12 other Nigerian states, while warning of severe dry spells in parts of Oyo and Ogun States.
According to NiMet, states including Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba will experience longer rainy seasons in 2026. Conversely, Borno, Yobe, and Niger States are expected to see shorter rainfall periods.
NiMet also highlighted that parts of Oyo and Ogun States may face severe dry spells exceeding 15 days between March and May 2026. Moderate dry spells are expected in Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, Delta, and some areas of Kogi and Kwara States.
The agency predicted that the “Little Dry Season” (LDS), or August Break, will be severe in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo, lasting 28–40 days with little to no rainfall. Moderate LDS conditions are expected over Ondo, Kwara, and Edo States.
During the June–August period, NiMet warned of severe dry spells lasting up to 21 days across Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara States.
The SCP, unveiled by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development in Abuja, also projects early onset of rains in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba. In contrast, Borno State is expected to have a late onset of rainfall.
Rainfall cessation is anticipated earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger States. Conversely, states such as Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna may see a delayed end of the rainy season.
NiMet further indicated that most regions in Nigeria will receive normal annual rainfall, with above-normal rainfall expected in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun States are likely to record below-normal rainfall.
The agency cautioned that daytime and nighttime temperatures in January, February, March, and May 2026 will likely be warmer than the long-term average across many Nigerian states.
NiMet Director-General, Prof. Charles Anosike, emphasized the importance of accurate weather information for food security, aviation safety, national infrastructure, and climate resilience. He reaffirmed NiMet’s commitment to providing digital weather advisory services and supporting farmers with localized climate guidance.
Farmers and rainfall-dependent sectors are advised to follow NiMet’s predicted onset dates and take proactive measures to mitigate climate risks in 2026.
