The U.K. housing market continued to pick up steam in July, as a flood of new buyers drove a sharp rebound in agreed-to sales in every region of the country.
It was the second straight month that demand rebounded following the Covid-19 lockdown that grounded most housing activity to a halt in April and May, according to a survey of more than 500 real estate offices from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors released Thursday.
A measure of home prices in July turned positive for the first time since the pandemic gripped the U.K., according to the survey. The price indicator rose for every region with the exception of London. The sentiment mirrors the Halifax House Price Index, a separate report, which also reported a rebound in prices in July.
A combination of historically low interest rates and a shortage of homes for sale are driving demand and price growth. Government relief has also buoyed household budgets in the short-term, including a property tax cut that ends in April.
Agents expected sales and prices to pick up the pace over the next three months. Interest has been particularly strong for homes with features buyers believe will help them endure another lockdown, including green spaces, gardens and balconies, agents noted in their responses.
Some of those surveyed, however, said the immediate boom will lead to a bust when government stimulus measures, like unemployment assistance and changes in the stamp duty, run out, said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist.
“It is interesting that there remains rather more caution about the medium-term outlook, with the macro environment, job losses and the ending or tapering of government support measures for the sector expected to take their toll,” he said.
A measure of long-term price expectations was only marginally positive, reflecting a broad sense of economic uncertainty beyond the current moment.
The biggest step most buildings are taking to minimize the risk of viral spread via HVAC systems is in many ways also the most straightforward: introducing more fresh outside air into their ventilation systems.
Increasing the percentage of outside air in a building “is the most concrete thing that I’ve heard designers being asked to actually implement,” said Kevin Edwards, a senior air quality analyst with New York-based environmental engineering firm AKRF. “You’re preventing recirculation of potentially ‘infected’ air, for lack of a better word, so you’re limiting the amount of time exposure happens.”
Two professional associations—the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) and the Chartered Institution of Building
Services Engineers (CIBSE)—have released guidance documents for buildings regarding Covid-19, Mr. Edwards said, and both include recommendations for increasing the ratio of outside air being circulated in buildings.
“At 50 West Street [in New York City’s Financial District], we had the HVAC system altered in early March to be sure that there’s no recycled air,” said Seth Coston of Time Equities. “We had it set up so that there’s no air being recycled, and we’re supplying 100% outside air to all sections of the building.”
Introduction of outdoor air creates its own attendant demands in terms of the need for further air purification, and the capability for changing the ratios of fresh versus recycled air varies across buildings and air systems.
“Some systems can be upgraded [to include more fresh air], some cannot, depending on their age,” said Dr. Herman Sabath, founder of New York-based firm Indoor Environmental Diagnostics and Solutions (IEDS). “After this crisis, designers, architects, builders and developers will have to think differently. The market will demand better ventilation systems, and this will be a definite new step and new requirement.”
Changing Filters and Cleaning More Frequently
Person-to-person transmission of droplets is still by far the most common way Covid-19 spreads, and the science around the virus’ spread in ventilation systems still leaves a lot of questions to be answered.
And while the air filters used in apartment buildings aren’t generally capable of catching anything as small as a virus, property managers are nonetheless replacing filters and cleaning air ducts more often in a bid to improve overall health conditions, and to instill confidence in residents.
“There’s no playbook, but there are fundamentals that can be done,” said Tom Lloyd, senior managing director at commercial property management firm CBRE. “Air filters in the duct systems are not going to capture this virus [to prevent its spread into the air] unless you’re using hospital-grade filters, which most residential systems are not designed to handle. But you can capture dust-borne particulates in higher density buildings.”
Stepping up protocol for cleaning coils and air ducts is another part of this process. “All of this maintenance is going to be done more frequently,” Mr. Lloyd said. “Cleaning coils more frequently, maybe cleaning ducts more frequently.”
“We’re looking at cleaner air initiatives in general,” said Andrew Hardy, senior
executive head of operations for JEMB Realty, which has implemented such health measures at its Herald Towers residential project in New York City. “We will look at our current maintenance schedules, and upgrade as necessary. We have a seasonal coil cleaning program, which won’t change, but will now use more Covid-battling disinfectants.”
While these are all positive steps, residents should be aware that for even the most well-maintained ventilation systems, the vast majority simply aren’t set up to combat a virus like Covid-19.
“Transparency is always a good thing,” but buildings reporting positive air quality readings are likely using traditional measures, which don’t account for particles as small as Covid-19, said Paul Scialla, CEO of Delos, a real estate startup with a focus on health and wellness design in both office and residential buildings.
UV light technology has become a large part of the conversation around stemming the spread of the virus, so much so that a program is now being piloted to use it as a means of killing germs on the New York City subway system.
This is true in apartment buildings as well.
“Currently we’re planning to install a UV light in one of the HVAC fresh air units as a test,” Mr. Coston said. “The idea is that the air passes by a UV light, which would kill [microbes] like viruses in the air before it’s supplied [to apartments and common areas]. It would be an additional step to make it extremely unlikely that we could have the virus existing in the HVAC system.”
This option is particularly important heading into the summer, when HVAC and air conditioning systems are in heavy use and using air that’s entirely brought in from the outdoors isn’t always feasible. “Ultimately the building can’t, on a very hot day, supply 100% fresh air if we don’t recycle some of the energy,” Mr. Coston said. “We started looking at potential uses for UV light, as it’s become clear that this is likely going to be an issue in July and August, when we would expect days with a heavy load on the HVAC system.”
UV light is already used inside some ventilation duct systems, Mr. Lloyd said, and may become more common as buildings look for ways to sanitize both their air
systems and other common areas of buildings.
“At our residential properties, we are looking into installing enhanced air filtration and ultraviolet lights throughout gyms, spas, elevators and other common areas and amenities spaces for sanitation purposes, and to kill any airborne mold, bacteria and viruses,” said David Martin, president of Terra, the Miami-based firm behind new residential developments such as Botaniko, Park Grove and Eighty Seven Park. “We’re also looking to install UV lights in the ductwork of the air conditioning units and exploring options on how to integrate these new technologies with our current systems in place.”